• Copper is on track for its biggest annual gain since 2009, driven by tight supply and global demand optimism.
• US-bound shipments and unplanned mine outages are intensifying shortages, pushing prices toward record highs.
• Analysts predict copper could hit USD 13K a ton next year amid AI infrastructure and energy transition demand.

Copper

Copper climbed to nearly USD 12,000 a ton as the year closes, marking its strongest annual performance in over a decade. This has been fueled by trade disputes, supply disruptions, and growing long-term demand. 

The immediate driver is a surge of copper shipments to the US, aimed at avoiding potential import tariffs. This movement threatens to leave other global markets undersupplied. Prices have jumped about 36% this year, reflecting both strategic buying and mine outages.

The metal’s importance in energy transition projects, including renewable infrastructure, and its emerging role in AI-related industries, has further strengthened demand. Supply stress is clear: recent negotiations for ore processing contracts ended with smelters accepting zero-dollar fees per ton, the lowest on record.

Record Prices

Copper futures recently rose 0.7% to $11,966.50 a ton in Shanghai trading, with aluminum, zinc, and nickel also posting gains. This has led analysts to being optimistic for 2026. Additionally, Citigroup expects prices could reach USD 13,000 a ton in the second quarter due to continued US demand. Moreover, Goldman Sachs has identified copper as a preferred metal for the upcoming year.

Unplanned outages at mines worldwide are tightening supply, while demand from sectors like clean energy and AI infrastructure continues to rise. The market remains sensitive to logistical shifts, trade policies, and supply chain disruptions.

With just a few trading days left in 2025, copper’s surge highlights the balance between constrained supply and sustained demand. Investors and manufacturers alike are closely watching developments as the metal enters a new year at record levels.