– Goldman Sachs has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2030 to 108.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 106 million bpd, expecting consumption to peak at 110 million bpd by 2034 due to slower electric vehicle (EV) adoption.

– The prolonged growth in oil demand, driven by emerging markets like China and India, is projected to keep refineries operating at higher-than-average rates until the end of the decade.

– While Goldman Sachs anticipates a decline in oil demand at a compounded annual growth rate of 0.3% post-2034, this trend could lead to increased income for producers and elevated emissions.

Goldman Sachs increased its global oil demand forecast for 2030, anticipating consumption to peak by 2034 due to a potential slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. This trend is expected to keep refineries operating at higher-than-average rates until the decade’s end, according to media reports.

The bank’s research division revised its 2030 crude oil demand forecast to 108.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 106 million bpd. Analysts, led by Nikhil Bhandari, project demand to peak at 110 million bpd in 2034, followed by a long plateau until 2040.

A prolonged period of oil demand growth could increase incomes for producers, including OPEC+ members, but also elevate climate-warming emissions from fossil fuels. “We expect peak oil demand to occur by 2034 at 110 million bpd; subsequently, we project a moderate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) demand decline of 0.3% until 2040,” Goldman noted, citing stagnating EV sales.

Emerging markets in Asia, particularly China and India, are expected to drive the majority of global oil demand growth until 2040. The global refining upcycle could last longer than anticipated, with refining utilization remaining above historical averages from 2024 to 2027.

Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about middle distillates (diesel/jet fuel) than gasoline, as incremental supply growth for middle distillates is expected to lag behind demand growth more significantly from 2024 to 2027. This is partly due to a later demand peak for middle distillates (mid-2030s) compared to gasoline (2028).

EV sales have slowed recently after years of rapid growth, as consumers await more affordable models. Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency, which expects global oil demand to peak before 2030, trimmed its forecast for this year by 140,000 bpd to 1.1 million bpd, widening the gap with producer group OPEC.