PwC Middle East’s new Value in Motion report says the region’s total gross domestic product could reach 4.57 trillion dollars by 2035, around one trillion dollars more than it is today under the baseline outlook. 

The study links that trajectory to two powerful forces that are already reshaping the regional economy: the scale of artificial intelligence adoption and the way the Middle East manages the cost and availability of clean energy.

Three possible futures for the Middle East

PwC, a global audit giant, models three scenarios for 2035. In all three cases, artificial intelligence lifts productivity while climate transition costs act as a drag. The difference lies in how far and how fast governments and businesses move. 

In the most positive scenario, which the report calls trust-based transformation, widespread use of artificial intelligence combines with coordinated climate action. The uplift from artificial intelligence adds about 8.3 percentage points to regional output by 2035, while climate costs subtract about 5.2 percentage points. That still results in the strongest outcome, with GDP reaching about 4.68 trillion dollars.

A middle scenario, referred to as Tense transition, assumes more cautious investment in technology and uneven progress on climate goals. In this case, artificial intelligence adds roughly three point nine percentage points, and climate costs reduce output by two point nine percentage points, bringing GDP to around 4.61 trillion dollars in 2035. 

The weakest scenario, called Turbulent times, reflects slower technology adoption and higher physical climate risk. Under that path, GDP would be around 4.45 trillion dollars by 2035. The gap between this outcome and the best case is about 232 billion dollars, underscoring how much value is at stake.

New domains of growth beyond traditional sectors

PwC argues that growth will increasingly come from what it calls new domains of growth, rather than from standalone sectors. These domains are built around essential human needs such as how people move, feed themselves, receive care, build and power their lives, and how finance and governance systems support those activities. 

As traditional sectors such as energy, mobility, food, health care, construction, and finance converge, the report expects these domains to unlock around one trillion dollars of additional value by 2035, lifting regional GDP to the baseline figure of 4.57 trillion dollars.

Why the Middle East is well-positioned but must move quickly

According to PwC, the Middle East has structural advantages that can support this shift. These include access to some of the lowest-cost renewable energy in the world, ambitious national diversification plans, a young and technology-literate population, and growing investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

The report says these assets could help the region become both a sustainability leader and an artificial intelligence hub, particularly as global demand for energy to power data centres and computing continues to rise.

What businesses and governments need to do now

PwC concludes that the next decade will reward early movers. For companies, that means investing in artificial intelligence at scale, redesigning business models to reduce emissions, building data and talent capabilities, and forming partnerships that cut across sectors and borders.

For governments, the report highlights the need for policy frameworks that encourage clean energy deployment, digital infrastructure, regional cooperation, and workforce reskilling. Together, those steps can help the Middle East move toward the higher end of its projected outcomes and secure long-term, technology-driven growth.